Daenerys - A Most Unreliable Narrator

   One of the tricks that George R. R. Martin uses to surprise his readers is the concept of the unreliable narrator.  For example, think of your first impressions of Rhaegar Targaryen.  At the very beginning of the very first book, Robert Baratheon describes the man as a rapist and a monster.  Many will take Robert's tale for granted until much later in the series when other characters like Jon Connington and Barristan Selmy reveal that Rhaegar was not, in fact, a monster.  However, by this time it is too late for the reader to pay close attention to the fact that Eddard Stark never acknowledged Robert's description of Rhaegar, and even seemed to hold a quite different opinion of the man.  All but the most attentive readers will have missed this clue to unraveling what really may have happened in the past.  First impressions are lasting impressions, and George has used this trick of unreliable first impressions to great effect.

   This brings me to Daenerys.  What many don't realize until it's too late is that Daenerys is an extremely unreliable narrator.  By the time the reader has enough clues to understand this, he has already recorded her musings into his perceived history of events.  He has forgotten that the only significant account of the flight to and from Dragonstone came from Daenerys, and it is now locked into his head as historical fact.

   How unreliable is Daenerys?  Let's put things into perspective.  Daenerys was not even born until Willem Darry supposedly fled with her and Viserys from Dragonstone.  Therefore, everything she knows up to and including this event must come from others.  Who is her primary source for this information?  Viserys.

   I shouldn't need to explain that Viserys is delusional - unable to even recognize the reality in front of his own two eyes.  On top of that, however, we can demonstrate that his memory of history is often imagined.  Consider a couple of examples:

   Viserys believes that the Usurper's hired knives were chasing them all across Essos, but Robert explains, "I should have had them both killed years ago, when it was easy to get at them, but Jon was as bad as you. More fool I, I listened to him."

   Daenerys reveals that "Viserys had told her stories of the tourneys he had witnessed in the Seven Kingdoms, but Dany had never seen a joust herself."  Yet, Viserys was not allowed to attend tournaments due to Aerys's fear of attempts on his life.  Viserys was not even allowed to attend the tourney held in honor of his own birth!

   At this point, we should be questioning all the things that Daenerys believes about her past.  All. The. Things.

"His blunt words startled her. It seemed as though all the things she had always believed were suddenly called into question."

   In truth, you wouldn't even need tinfoil to question if she is the sister of Viserys!

"Daenerys... Remember who you are."

Dragonseed of the Mad King

   Will the eventual dragonriders in the Song of Ice and Fire be the three Great Bastards of Aerys II
Targaryen?

"The seed is strong."

- Jon Arryn

   There exist three separate theories that are well formed and quite plausible:
1) Tyrion Lannister is the son of Aerys II Targaryen and Joanna Lannister.
2) Jon Snow is the son of Aerys II Targaryen and Lyanna Stark.
3) Daenerys Targaryen is the daughter of Aerys II Targaryen and Ashara Dayne.

   These are all so well thought out that I wish I could take credit for them.  (I especially appreciate the Water Gardens analysis in the Daenerys section.  Go read it!)  Alas, I cannot.  However, I have not seen anyone question whether all three of these theories combine to form a tale greater than the sum of its parts.

"Daenerys. Remember the Undying. Remember who you are."

"I remember the Undying. Child of three, they called me."

   You will note that all three of these characters are often considered to be eventual dragonriders.  There was an old woods witch who prophesied - apparently - that the Prince that was Promised would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella.  Of course, we don't actually have a first-hand account of that prophecy, so in typical GRRM fashion it was likely twisted and deceptive.  What if the three heads of the dragon are, instead, Aerys's illegitimate children?  This sounds very much like GRRM's style.

"He spoke of dreams and never named the dreamer, of a glass candle that could not be lit and eggs that would not hatch. He said the sphinx was the riddle, not the riddler, whatever that meant."

   Could Aemon have been onto something?  Did Aerys fail to light the Targaryen candle?  Rhaella's eggs would not hatch.  Is the result of this failure a Valyrian Sphynx?  A mixture of various houses joined by a common Dragon?

   This possibility would explain much and more, and it doesn't interfere too much with many of the other more established theories out there.  After all, Jon is already suspected of being a Targaryen, so much of the evidence already accepted works for this version.  It even explains many things better, as you can see in the pieces linked above.  Enjoy!

Longclaw's True History

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from any material of A Song of Ice and Fire.

   Longclaw's history, as given by Jeor Mormont, was deliberately fabricated.

   It's interesting to observe that, until a year ago, many people were on-board with the idea that Longclaw was actually Blackfyre, one of two known ancestral Targaryen swords.  Then, George had to go and ruin everyone's fun when someone asked him about it on his blog:

Fan 1: "I'm a big fan of your work and have a question for you: Is Longclaw really Blackfyre, the bastard sword of the Targaryen kings? Searching through the books I found the description of both blades to be almost identical."
GRRM: "No."
Fan 2: "I think most people speculate that Longclaw may actually be Darksister. The sword brought to Castle Black by Bloodraven. Any truth to that?"
Fan 3: "Is there something hidden underneath the crypts of Winterfell?"
GRRM: "Hey, guys... enough of this. I am not going to reveal anything in the comments section of my Not A Blog. That's what the BOOKS are for."

   Notably, this exchange is reminiscent of the time George dodged the question of Rhaegar's burial.  George likes to answer questions as long as people don't get too near the truth of the secrets he wishes to remain hidden for now.

   Therefore, we face the question: why not Dark Sister?  The primary objection to the Darkclaw theory is a great litmus test for determining which fans are RPG gamers and which fans are historians.  Those who believe ASoIAF is a D&D rulebook will declare that Longclaw cannot be Dark Sister because a bastard sword cannot be a longsword.  I like a good RPG as much as the next guy, but that's not what George is writing.  For those who would like clarification, this handy primer from ARMA describes why it is perfectly acceptable to call a bastard sword a longsword.  This is especially true if the hilt was remade because The term [bastard sword] may derive not from the blade length, but because bastard-swords typically had longer handles with special 'half-grips' which could be used by either one or both hands.

Left: Dark Sister by Velvet Engine from The World of Ice and Fire.
Right: Longclaw from Jalic, Inc's official Valyrian Steel blade line.
The relative dimensions are in no way contrary to canon.

   Another common argument is that the physical descriptions of the swords are contrary.  This is great for a different litmus test - determining which readers can actually comprehend the words in front of them.  Let's start with the descriptions of Longclaw:

   The pommel was a hunk of pale stone weighted with lead to balance the long blade. It had been carved into the likeness of a snarling wolf's head, with chips of garnet set into the eyes. The grip was virgin leather, soft and black, as yet unstained by sweat or blood. The blade itself was a good half foot longer than those Jon was used to, tapered to thrust as well as slash, with three fullers deeply incised in the metal. Where Ice was a true two-handed greatsword, this was a hand-and-a-halfer, sometimes named a 'bastard sword.' Yet the wolf sword actually seemed lighter than the blades he had wielded before. When Jon turned it sideways, he could see the ripples in the dark steel where the metal had been folded back on itself again and again.

   You’ll want to wear that over the shoulder, I imagine. It’s too long for the hip, at least until you’ve put on a few inches.

   Slung across his back in a black leather shoulder sheath was Longclaw, the hand-and-a-half bastard blade the Old Bear had given him for saving his life. A bastard sword for a bastard, the men joked. The hilt had been fashioned new for him, adorned with a wolf's-head pommel in pale stone, but the blade itself was Valyrian steel, old and light and deadly sharp.

   "He let him feel the lightness, the balance, had him turn the blade so that ripples gleamed in the smoke-dark metal. "Valyrian steel," he said, "spell-forged and razor-sharp, nigh on indestructible."

   Longclaw was feather-light.

   Notice that while it is longer than the practice swords Jon is used to, it is short enough for a grown man to wear at the hip.

   Now for Dark Sister's descriptions:

   the Valyrian longsword Dark Sister, whose slender blade is designed for a woman's hand

   Blackfyre is "somewhat larger and darker" than Dark Sister or Lady Forlorn.

   The word "slender" is a reference to thickness or width, not length.  The fact that Blackfyre is "somewhat larger" may refer to length or width or both, but is ambiguous.  Ultimately, we have no reference for how the length of Blackfyre compares with Longclaw.  Nor do we have a reference for Longclaw's width.  Therefore, there is no point at which the sizes of the two swords contrast.

   Notice, also, that Longclaw's lightness is highlighted ad nauseum.  This is consistent with a Valyrian blade "designed for a woman's hand."  The slenderness of Dark Sister and Lightness of Longclaw are also quite consistent with the physical description of Snow himself!  Jon was slender where Robb was muscular, dark where Robb was fair, graceful and quick where his half brother was strong and fast.

   Observe the artistic representations of Dark Sister and Longclaw in the image and how similar the blades are, especially the three fullers in both.  Dark Sister's image is from The World of Ice and Fire.  See Ran's comment in this link regarding the canon of the book's illustrations.  Of Jalic, Inc's representation of Longclaw, George has this to say: "Chris and I have been trading emails for months, fine tuning the design, and we finally have one we love."   This certainly is not proof, but it is an apt demonstration of how they may look alike.

   There is one time that the word "great" is used in reference to Longclaw: Longclaw was slung to his saddle, the carved stone wolf's-head pommel and soft leather grip of the great bastard sword within easy reach.  Even if this did refer to a great size, it's quite ambiguous.  Consider, however, that the only other times the words "great bastard" are mentioned in any canon texts they refer to Aegon the Unworthy's sons, and one of them is the last known wielder of Dark Sister.

   This brings us to the biggest piece of evidence that makes Dark Sister a more likely fit for Longclaw than Blackfyre: Bloodraven.  He was a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch before he became a tree, and it's not unlikely that he left Dark Sister in what became Mormont's chambers.  It is widely believed that Bloodraven communicates through Mormont's unusual raven, which, as it happens, loves to perch upon Longclaw.  It also seems that they both gave Jon the blade:

   "The fire melted the silver off the pommel and burnt the crossguard and grip. Well, dry leather and old wood, what could you expect? The blade, now... you'd need a fire a hundred times as hot to harm the blade." Mormont shoved the scabbard across the rough oak planks. "I had the rest made anew. Take it."
   "Take it," echoed his raven, preening. "Take it, take it."

   Finally, here's another subtle nod to Dark Sister, sword of the famous Dragonknight, Aemon Targaryen: The gift of a sword, even a sword as fine as Longclaw, did not make him a Mormont. Nor was he Aemon Targaryen.

   It seems that Mormont is fibbing just a bit.  Why?  The man certainly demonstrates a notable understanding of Targaryen history in Jon's first chapter of the second book.  Could he be in on Ned's conspiracy?  I suspect that the history of House Mormont has been fabricated along with the history of its ancestral sword, but that is a story for another time.

Tanselle's Shield

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from any material of A Song of Ice and Fire.

Dunk's coat of arms by Crackclaw

   Readers have already speculated that the kissing couple in Bran's vision is Ser Duncan the Tall and a young Old Nan, and that Hodor and a few others at the Wall are Dunk's descendants in addition to Brienne.  I won't rehash those details, though they're quite convincing.  Instead, I have my own heartwarming contribution to add to the Dunk and Nan romance:

   Old Nan is Tanselle Too-Tall.

   I'm not the first to guess at this, but until now the idea has been quickly dismissed.  (Update: Found a good previous analysis here.)  After all, Nan is too short, isn't she?  Take a second look at the way George describes Nan's height.  He uses the word, "shrunken."  This careful wording is a clue - a suggestion that she used to be taller than she is, perhaps significantly so.  I don't recall any mention of exactly how short she really is, so this may merely indicate something to the effect of her being hunched over.  Let's take a look at Bran's vision of Young Nan:

   "Then there came a brown-haired girl slender as a spear who stood on the tips of her toes to kiss the lips of a young knight as tall as Hodor."

   Now, let's compare it to Dunk's descriptions of Tanselle:

   "The puppeteer who worked the dragon was good to watch too; a tall drink of water, with the olive skin and black hair of Dorne. She was slim as a lance with no breasts to speak of, but Dunk liked her face and the way her fingers made the dragon snap and slither at the end of its strings."

   "He liked the way she ran, though. A pretty girl, and tall. I would not have to kneel to kiss that one. He knew how to kiss.  A tavern girl had showed him one night in Lannisport, a year ago, but she'd been so short she had to sit on the table to reach his lips."

   "She was a head shorter than he was, but still taller than any other girl he had ever seen."

   "Slim as a lance" and "slender as a spear" are huge clues.  The hair descriptions aren't exact, but brown hair often appears black.

   The height works very well here.  Dunk is 6 feet 11 inches, and it would be difficult for most women to kiss him while standing.  The Winterfell woman, however, merely stands on her toes.  I personally happen to be a head taller than my wife, and she says that it is a regular occurrence for her to stand on her toes when we kiss.  These descriptions work so well that it seems likely that Bran indeed saw Tanselle in Winterfell.

   Let's not forget that both Old Tan and Nanselle Too-Tall have a love of storytelling, and both have a knack for doing it well.  As a young lady, she told her stories with puppets.  In her old age, she merely entertained the children verbally.  Several of Old Nan's stories are mentioned as being performed by Tanselle.  Furthermore, there is this hint:

   "'Aerion the Monstrous?'  Jon knew that name.  'The Prince Who Thought He Was A Dragon' was one of Old Nan's more gruesome tales.  His little brother Bran had loved it."

   I'm thinking Nanselle made that story especially gruesome.  Aerion made a point of thinking he was a dragon when he punished Tanselle for making the puppet dragon die in battle.  I wonder if Old Nan has ever had a broken finger...

   This is enough to have me convinced that a future Dunk and Egg will reveal that there's a very good reason Dunk never found Tanselle in Dorne: she instead fled to Winterfell.  As of our last Dunk and Egg tale, Dunk has been talking of heading north, and he also has a new shield in dire need of repainting.  Remember that Tanselle's first shield was destroyed by Ser Lucas the Longinch, even though Brienne tells that such a shield later resided at Evenfall Hall's armoury.  A second shield must have been remade.  How sweet it would be to have Tanselle repaint the sigil - I'm sure she remembers every detail of the true knight who stood up to the dragon for her.

   One of Dunk's first tasks as a Knight of the Kingsguard was to escort Brynden Rivers and Maester Aemon to the Wall.  Perhaps this journey had a second purpose - a last farewell to his only love.  This bittersweet moment is what Bran saw.

   "Bran was going to be a knight himself someday, one of the Kingsguard.  Old Nan said they were the finest swords in all the realm."

Update: Or is Old Nan really Rohanne?
Who is Old Nan? by The Order of the Green Hand

Tower of Joy - For the Record

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from any material of A Song of Ice and Fire.

   I want to get two mini-theories out there just for the record, because I haven't seen anyone suggest them yet.  Both of them have something to do with the Tower of Joy, and tie in well with the Mance Rhaegar theory.

   As you read, remember George's words regarding Ned's flashback: "Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal."

1) Lyanna was kidnapped, but not by Rhaegar.

   Look.  Everyone is pointing out how stupid Rhaegar was to kidnap or elope with Lyanna.  I totally agree that it would be completely irresponsible and short-sighted.  We're also told in no uncertain terms that Rhaegar simply is not that stupid.  This is a contradiction that cannot be ignored.

   The most common attempts to reconcile this apparent contradiction are to suggest that Rhaegar was blinded by true love or an obsession with prophecy.  These are inadequate, to say the least.  Ser Barristan Selmy described Rhaegar as "Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded."  Such a man would have certainly taken more care in securing a third heir.  The Official Story just doesn't fit.

   What fits better?  This: the kingsguard (and perhaps Rhaegar with them) were on a rescue mission.  If someone else kidnapped Lyanna, there would be an element of urgency that much better explains Rhaegar's sudden absence.  Who would do such a thing?  Oberyn Martell.

   "My sister loved him. She bore his children. Swaddled them, rocked them, fed them at her own breast. Elia wouldn't let the wet nurse touch them. And beautiful, noble Rhaegar Targaryen... left her for another woman."

   Some have noted the similarities between the Tower of Joy and Joyous Gard.  Who did Lancelot confront at Joyous Gard?  The copper knight.

   Oberyn's love for his sister, Elia, is well known.  He, and all of Dorne, would have taken the crowning of Lyanna at Harrenhal as an insult.  Furthermore, we know how important Dorne's arranged marriages were to the ruling family.  Rhaegar's attention toward Lyanna would have been viewed as a threat to Dorne's power and influence.  Dorne simply could not permit a relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna to grow.

   "But it is the grass that hides the viper from his enemies and shelters him until he strikes."

   The World of Ice and Fire tells us, "With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides."

   Lyanna was probably on the way to Brandon's wedding in Riverrun.  Rhaegar may have been too.  This would have been a great opportunity for Oberyn to strike as Lyanna had left the safety of Harrenhal where she was residing as a ward.  Rhaegar seems to have split his group and gone south after her.

   How, then, did the rumor of a kidnapping by Rhaegar originate?  Funny you should ask, because there just happened to be a bitter little snot whose path met the Crossroads Inn during this same timeframe.  Petyr Baelish had just received a good beating from Brandon Stark at Riverrun, and was on his way back to the Fingers to lick his wounds and rage about losing Catelyn forever.  Could he have witnessed the kidnapping?  Could he have even sped Rhaegar and friends on their way to rescue Lyanna?  And finally, could he have concocted the most convenient lie that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and took her back to King's Landing - the lie that led to the immediate death of his most hated rival?

   After Brandon's death, Littlefinger sent a letter to Catelyn, which she promptly burned unopened.  What was in it, I wonder?

   If the kingsguard were indeed on a rescue mission, then the encounter at the Tower of Joy probably was not the duel to the death that many believe it to be.  This fits in quite well with the Mance Rhaegar theory, as well as a little something else...

The standard of House Wells Wull by Eagle of Seagard

2) Theodan Wells is Theo Wull.

   There is a very solid theory about Howland Reed being the High Sparrow.  (Also related: Goldilocks and the Three Bears.)  Given that, and given the possibility that there are more survivors from the Tower of Joy than we originally thought, (Lord Dustin's bones, anyone?) I submit that Theo Wull is still working with Howland Reed to this day.

   Theo was nicknamed "Buckets" because his house's sigil is three wooden buckets, brown on blue, with a border of grey and white checks.  It looks a lot like a fricken well.  Bricks on the outside, water inside, and buckets.  Seriously.

"Well, he is, but they just call him the Wull." - Bran

   Howland needs to be working with people he can implicitly trust.  Who better to be the captain of the Warrior's Sons than someone who has been in on the whole Mance Rhaegar conspiracy from the beginning?  Besides, the only account of his character is given by Ned Stark, and the one word Ned used to describe the man is "faithful."  That's cute, George.

   This is an extremely important revelation because, if true, there are almost certainly other survivors of the encounter at the tower.  I suspect that Ned's other companions are knee deep in these shenanigans.  Let me know if you spot any more.

Tyrion Targaryen

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from any material of A Song of Ice and Fire.

Tyrion Lannister by winthersanna

   Face it; it's practically a fact.

   Aerys's infatuation with Joanna is well documented:

   The scurrilous rumor that Joanna Lannister gave up her maidenhead to Prince Aerys the night of his fathers coronation and enjoyed a brief reign after he ascended the Iron Throne as his paramour can  safely be discounted.
   It has been reliably reported, however, that King Aerys took unwonted liberties with Lady Joanna's person during her bedding ceremony, to Tywin's displeasure. Not long thereafter, Queen Rhaella dismissed Joanna Lannister from her service. No reason for this was ever given, but Lady Joanna departed at once for Casterly Rock and seldom visited King's Landing thereafter.
   - The World of Ice and Fire

   "Prince Aerys... as a youth, he was taken with a certain lady of Casterly Rock, a cousin of Tywin Lannister. When she and Tywin wed, your father drank too much wine at the wedding feast and was heard to say that it was a great pity that the lord's right to the first night had been abolished. A drunken jape, no more, but Tywin Lannister was not a man to forget such words, or the ... liberties your father took during the bedding."
   - Ser Barristan to Daenerys

   At the great Anniversary Tourney of 272 AC, held to commemorate Aerys's tenth year upon the Iron Throne, Joanna Lannister brought her six-year-old twins Jaime and Cersei from Casterly Rock to present before the court.  The king (very much in his cups) asked her if giving suck to them had "ruined your breasts, which were so high and proud."  The question greatly amused Lord Tywin's rivals, who were always pleased to see the Hand slighted or made mock of, but Lady Joanna was humiliated.  Tywin Lannister attempted to return his chain of office the next morning, but the king refused to accept his resignation.
   - The World of Ice and Fire

   Tyrion was born in the next year, so this tourney is when he was most likely conceived.  The only other time Tywin attempted to resign as Hand was when Tyrion was made his heir.  You see, this makes Aerys's appointment of Jaime to the Kingsguard especially cruel - it made his own bastard the heir to Casterly Rock.

   "Men’s laws give you the right to bear my name and display my colors, since I cannot prove that you are not mine."

   After Aerys's death, Tywin's hatred for the man would rest solely on Tyrion.  Tywin's "payment" to Tyrion's "whore" wife was revenge for what Aerys did to Tywin's own wife.

   "You are on son of mine." - Tywin's last words to Tyrion

   When Tyrion had the last laugh, he didn't actually kill his own father.  He avenged his true father, in a manner of speaking.  Jaime is mad at Tyrion for killing his dad?  Perhaps someone should inform him that it was merely payback for slaying Tyrion's father.  Ouch.

   That Night Tyrion Lannister dreamed of a battle that turned the hills of Westeros as read as blood. He was in the midst of it, dealing death with an axe as big as he was, fighting side by side with Barristan the Bold and Bittersteel as dragons wheeled across the sky above them. In the dream he had two heads, both noseless. His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again. Then he killed his brother, Jamie, hacking at his face until it was a red ruin, laughing every time he struck a blow. Only when the fight was finished did he realize that his second head was weeping.

   One of Tyrion's halves is Targaryen, the other is Lannister.  It's right there in the text.  I'm not sure Martin can make it any more clear without literally drawing us a picture.  The two halves are also represented by his mismatched eyes, reminding us of the half-Targaryen Shiera Seastar.

   Tywin would go to great lengths to make Tyrion behave like a Lannister, because he certainly wouldn't be allowed to behave like a Targaryen.  Yet he did behave quite like a Targaryen, specifically Rhaegar.  Tyrion is bookish and excels at everything he sets out to do, even when cleaning the toilets of Casterly Rock.

   "Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

   Tyrion also felt a connection to Jon Snow.  If R + L = J, it's not just because they're both rejects.

   "What the hell do you know about being a bastard?"
   "All dwarfs are bastards in their father's eyes."
   (Especially when they are, you know, actual bastards.)

   Tyrion may not have Rhaegar's skill in arms, but a dragon would be a great equalizer, wouldn't it?

   "Even a stunted, twisted, ugly little boy can look down over the world when he's seated on a dragon's back. I used to start fires in the bowels of Casterly Rock and stare at the flames for hours, pretending they were dragonfire. Sometimes I'd imagine my father burning. At other times, my sister. Don't look at me that way, bastard. I know your secret. You've dreamt the same kind of dreams."

   Moving forward, this will make Tyrion the perfect advisor for Daenerys.  He has extensively studied dragon lore, and he even has practice making unconventional saddles.  Just what she needs!  Maester Aemon thinks so, too:

   "Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it." Just talking of her seemed to make him stronger. "I must go to her. I must."
...
"Daenerys is our hope. Tell them that, at the Citadel. Make them listen. They must send her a maester. Daenerys must be counseled, taught, protected."

   Since the death of the dragons, much dragon lore has been lost to the Targaryen family.  Tyrion could not be in a better position to restore it now that the dragons have returned.

Rhaegar's Tower of Crows

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from any material of A Song of Ice and Fire.

   If you read A Song of Ice and Fire as if it is a mystery series, you quickly catch on to the fact that George R. R. Martin likes to use songs and other tales to give you clues about secrets within the greater story.  These tales are more than mere flavor; they have double meanings and hidden messages.  Sometimes the characters presenting them are unaware of the implications, but George is using them to give clues to the reader.

   Several of these items are pertinent to the Mance Rhaegar Theory, such as the tale of Bael the Bard, the song The Dornishman's Wife, and Mance Rayder's own account of his shadowcat attack.  Others have discussed these, though I plan to do the same eventually.  In this post, however, I would like to address a connection that I have not yet seen made.

   "Old Nan told him a story about a bad little boy who climbed too high and was struck down by lightning, and how afterward the crows came to peck out his eyes.  Bran was not impressed.  There were crows' nests atop the broken tower, where no one ever went but him, and sometimes he filled his pockets with corn before he climbed up there and the crows ate it right out of his hand.  None of them had ever shown the slightest bit of interest in pecking out his eyes."

   Nan's tale seems to be a reference to - you guessed it - Rhaegar Targaryen.  Consider that those in Winterfell might view him as "a bad little boy who climbed too high" because, as the Official Story goes, he abused his power as the prince to abduct Lyanna Stark, the daughter of a great lord who was already engaged to another great lord.  That latter lord - the Storm Lord - is the lightning that struck him down.

   The part about the eyes isn't quite as clear, but I suspect it means that the Night's Watch erased his identity.  Crows are a common reference to the Watch, and Rhaegar's eyes were his most defining characteristic.  Old Nan may or may not be aware of Rhaegar's hiding, but George can still use her tale to send a hidden message to the reader.

   Jaime also recalls that crows "had feasted on Rhaegar Targaryen after the Trident."  Crows often start with the eyes.

   What's cute is that Bran isn't buying the Official Story.  This is George's way of saying that you shouldn't either.  Bran's own take has significance, too.  Bran is being used by George to further relay the hidden meaning to the reader.

   "There were crows' nests atop the broken tower," means the Night's Watch has castles at the top of Westeros.  Westeros's map does look very much like a broken tower.  It can also be described a broken due to the fall of the Targaryens and the resulting feuds, or the earlier tensions fueled by Aerys.

   "where no one ever went but him," describes the isolation that would protect Rhaegar, especially at the Shadow Tower.  Rhaegar's motivation for getting involved in northern affairs may have also been fueled by the fact that few go there anymore and the Watch is dwindling.  It needs a man with his special gift for uniting people in order to weather the coming storm.

   "sometimes he filled his pockets with corn before he climbed up there and the crows ate it right out of his hand."  This may mean that he disguised himself and they bought it - hook, line, and sinker.

   "None of them had ever shown the slightest bit of interest in pecking out his eyes."  Nobody wants Rhaegar's new throne.  He is far removed from the feuding now.

As always, I welcome any corrections or additions to help strengthen the theory.

10 Reasons Rhaegar is Not Dead

"Take heart, Father.  At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."

Mance Rayder's second cousin

   Below are some of the most common objections to the Mance Rhaegar Theory.  You may now consider them answered.  I plan to keep this post updated as new, prominent objections arise.  In the interest of keeping future topics on track, I also plan to redirect such objections to this post.  Please debate them here.

  1. Martin's cremation comment
  2. Eye witnesses
  3. Mance's upbringing
  4. Mance is dead
  5. Physical appearance
  6. Uncharacteristic
  7. Not Martin's style
  8. Jorah's quote
  9. No evidence
  10. No narrative purpose
  Bonus! Indignation

In an interview, George R. R. Martin said that Rhaegar was cremated.

   This is true, and seems to be the strongest evidence against the Mance Rhaegar Theory.  However, I will explain why this case is not open and shut.

   First, let us assume, for the sake of argument, that the Mance Rhaegar Theory is true.  In such a scenario, I think we can all agree that it is one of the biggest secrets, if not the biggest secret, in the entire series.  George would almost certainly be saving the "big reveal" for the climax of A Song of Ice and Fire.  When put to the question, what would you expect the author to say in such a case?

   If he outright refused to answer by responding, "What body," "Keep reading," or "Good question, one day you will get an answer," he would be inviting so much speculation as to spoil the grand surprise.  The mastermind behind the mystery would have to choose between engaging in a little misdirection and ruining the climax of his magnum opus.  It is ridiculous that critics of the theory suggest he would do the latter.  George said exactly what I would have expected him to say if an impersonator was slain at the Trident and the body believed to be Rhaegar's was cremated.

Furthermore, let us not forget that George is willing to make false statements when pressed with difficult questions.

   Those who rely on this argument must answer the question, "Assuming Mance Rhaegar was true, how should George have answered the question?"  If a sufficient answer cannot be provided, then the argument is not a valid reductio ad absurdum.  I submit that any answer that spoils the mystery is insufficient.

   Second, cremation may be a vague reference to other events.  Mance was supposedly burned at the Wall, remember.  Rhaegar was born at the massive pyre of Summerhall.  It has been suggested that he attempted a similar pyre at the Tower of Joy.  It could also be symbolic of burning the past and being reborn like a phoenix.  It is a bit of a stretch, but we know there is Targaryen precedent for this.

   Remember, the Elder Brother refers to his own death (and that of the Hound) in the sense of becoming a new man.  That's just one of many examples in the series.  George may be doing the same here.

"The unburnt king supplied some names"

Jon, on cremated Mance

   Third, Robert was pleased with the gruesome deaths of Rhaegar's wife and children.  He would never allow Rhaegar, the direct object of his never-ending hatred, a dignified, traditional Targaryen cremation.  No matter how you slice it, something secretive is going on here.

   Finally, George did not actually answer the question about Rhaegar's body!  The question has often been misquoted and the answer taken out of context.  Here is the original Q&A:

   Q: "Who recovered Rhaegar's corpse (if anyone did it) and where was he buried (if he was buried)?"

   GRRM: "Rhaegar was cremated, as is traditional for fallen Targaryens. This has been fun, but time is passing and I have another long day tomorrow, and so I´m going to need to wind this up. Three more questions, and let´s close."

   It was a specific, two-part question.  George only gave the vaguest possible answer to the second part, and completely ignored the first.  Then, he made a deliberate effort to change the subject even though he had time to answer more questions!  It cannot be denied that George R. R. Martin intentionally refused to discuss who recovered Rhaegar's corpse.  Any reasonable person would admit that this revelation actually supports the belief that Rhaegar may not be dead.

   Shame on those who have quoted a portion of this out of context when the context makes all the difference.

Everybody saw Rhaegar die by Robert's hand.

   First, battles are not as easy to follow as they are in the movies.  It's not like there was a crowd gathered around the two combatants chanting, "Fight!  Fight!  Fight!"  Watching somebody else's combat is a quick way to become good and dead.

"The singers would have us believe it was all Rhaegar and Robert struggling in the stream for a woman both of them claimed to love..."

The Elder Brother

   Second, in the known example of Mance using a "glamour" to disguise himself, the magic was controlled using a ruby held by a black iron fetter.  Similarly, Rhaegar's armor was black with encrusted rubies.  Not only would his narrow-slitted helm have concealed his face, but the body itself may have been that of an impersonator disguised as Rhaegar using red magic.

   Third, Lord Eddard Stark points out that he had to take over because Robert was injured in the battle.  The Mance Rhaegar Theory posits that Ned, some of the Kingsguard, and a few other lords are plotting together with Rhaegar.  (Ser Barristan Selmy was not in on the secret, but he was also greatly injured.)  Ned would have been responsible for cleaning up the mess, and had a very strong motive for interfering with the evidence.  If a few of his close vassals found out and/or assisted him, they would have been great candidates to take to the Tower of Joy.

"Better rubies than bones."

Septon Meribald

   Fourth, the Elder Brother of the Quiet Isle, where six of Rhaegar's rubies washed up, is known for healing - and being healed of - wounds that others would dismiss for being fatal.

   Fifth, I believe that "brothers" assisted Rhaegar after the battle.  There are two indicators of this.  I'll expand on them elsewhere, but here's the basic rundown:

   The song, The Dornishman's Wife, is a retelling of part of Rhaegar's life.  It says that a man was mortally wounded, prayed over by his brothers, and then "he smiled and he laughed and he sung."  He then says "my days here are done," meaning that he must go into hiding, and "all men must die," which means that his new quest is to stop the Others and the Faceless from destroying the world.  (According to The Grand Faceless Men Conspiracy Theory, "all men must die" actually means "humanity must be exterminated."  I suggest that it has a double meaning in the song, too.)

   In Mance's shadowcat story, which is another retelling of his fall in the war, his "brothers" carried him to where he was healed.  "Brothers" might refer to his brothers-in-law, Ned and Ben.  It might be some of the Kingsguard.  It could also be the brothers of the Quiet Isle.

   Note that Mance gives Jon both of these retellings at their first meeting.  The very first words out of Mance's mouth to Jon were in a song about his mother!  "How did you like the song, lad?"  That's cute, Dad.

   Finally, Jaime gives us this very interesting tidbit: "On the morning after the battle, the crows had feasted on victors and vanquished alike, as once they had feasted on Rhaegar Targaryen after the Trident.  How much can a crown be worth, when a crow can dine upon a king?"

   If crows munched on Rhaegar - or his replacement - they probably would have gone for the eyes first as they tend to do, and even his scalp if his helm fell off.  Rhaegar's eyes were his most defining characteristic.  Though silver hair is a bit more common and easier to reproduce, even that may not have remained.  If there was a replacement in Rhaegar's armor, nobody may have had the opportunity to find out.

   Additionally, this demonstrates that the aftermath of the Trident was extremely chaotic.  The great Rhaegar Targaryen - the crown prince - was left to lie long enough for crows to feast on him!  This would have given Ned ample opportunity to mess with the evidence, such as discovering a dying Rhaegar and replacing him with a man whose head was "feasted" upon.  Jaime's rhetorical question is a clue.  Ned clearly honored the memory of Rhaegar.  He would not have allowed such shame to come to him if he could help it.

Mance was fostered at the Wall from childhood.

   The tale of Mance Rayder's upbringing is almost certainly a tall one.

   If the Mance Rhaegar Theory is true, the very few people with direct knowledge of the origins of this story would want to keep Rhaegar's identity secret.  To this end, Rhaegar would have had help from loyal friends and even family.  Qhorin is a prime candidate for such a helping hand.  (Halfhand of the King?)  Almost nobody remaining at the Wall remembers as far back as Mance's childhood.  Furthermore, Mance operated at the Shadow Tower, well away from prying eyes and ears.

   Remember, the Mance Rhaegar Theory posits that several people with great influence over the Night's Watch are in on the secret.  Ned Stark does not have insignificant sway over the Wall, and Benjen is First Ranger.  Maester Aemon is a relative of Rhaegar, and so was the past Lord Commander Brynden Rivers.  Also, how many Targaryen loyalists may have ended up at the Wall after Robert's Rebellion?

   There is even a very solid theory that Jeor Mormont knowingly gave an ancestral Targaryen sword to Jon.  (While GRRM explicitly stated on his blog that Longclaw is not Blackfyre, he deliberately dodged the assertion that Dark Sister is more likely.)  The Old Bear also demonstrates a thorough knowledge of Targaryen history, and an awareness that the wildlings are not the real threat to the Watch.

   It is almost certain that Mormont was in on the conspiracy.  Perhaps Ned even encouraged the Old Bear to join the Watch and used his influence to help him rise to Lord Commander for this purpose - a rapid rise that Ser Denys Mallister lamented.  In fact, I can find no mention of House Mormont in The World of Ice and Fire by Maester Yandel, even though it mentions many less significant houses as well as several references to Bear Island.  It seems that House Mormont may have been silently established by Eddard Stark some time after Robert's Rebellion and Yandel's work.

   Furthermore, the wildling, Osha, actually contradicted the story that Mance was born as a wildling and raised at the wall when she said, "He can call himself King- beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he’s still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He’s never tasted winter. I was born up there, child, like my mother and her mother before her and her mother before her, born of the Free Folk. We remember."  Why wouldn't Mance want the wildlings to know he was born as one of them, and that he has always lived in the North?  Perhaps he knew he couldn't fool them, and didn't need to.

Mance Rayder died on television.

   The television show is not the same story as the books.  George explains, "Some of the 'spoilers' you may encounter in season six may not be spoilers at all... because the show and the books have diverged, and will continue to do so."

   Furthermore, George revealed in an interview that he has a huge plot twist planned for the next book: "I have decided to do it. Will you know it? I don’t know. It is fairly obvious because it is something that involves a couple of characters, one of which is dead on the show, and not dead in the books. So the show can’t do it, unfortunately, because they have killed someone I have not killed."

   This fits perfectly with the possibility that Mance is someone significant, such as Rhaegar or Dayne.

Mance Rayder doesn't look like Rhaegar Targaryen.

   This is true.  Mance is plain looking.  His hair is turned mostly gray from brown, and his eyes are brown.  Rhaegar was stunning, with silver hair and deep, lilac eyes.

   However, if you think this destroys the Mance Rhaegar Theory, then we must not be reading the same books.  Mance has proven willing to disguise himself and impersonate others multiple times.  Such disguises include the musician at Robert's feast in Winterfell, Rattleshirt, and Abel the bard.  In addition, Arya's branch of the tale has shown us how looks can be very deceiving by "Faceless" means in this series.  There's even the possibility of "warging" into other people such as Bran does to Hodor, though I do not think the Mance Rhaegar Theory needs to resort to that unusual device.

"I have a great fondness for the charms of women."

Mance Rayder, on glamours

It's not like Rhaegar to cowardly hide at the Wall.

   I don't see how Mance's actions can be described as cowardly.  He earned the respect of the Wildlings through many feats of strength, courage, and cunning.  He is actively working to save the realm - and those beyond it - from the greatest threat it has ever known.  His efforts toward this end have been skillfully well-played as well as bold, and his goal for the safety of the realm is that of a true king.

"I knew Mance Rayder, Jon. He is an oathbreaker, yes... but he has eyes to see, and no man has ever dared to name him faintheart."

Jeor Mormont, on girly men calling Mance a coward

"Mance had spent years assembling this vast plodding host, talking to this clan mother and that magnar, winning one village with sweet words and another with a song and a third with the edge of his sword, making peace between Harma Dogshead and the Lord o' Bones, between the Hornfoots and the Nightrunners, between the walrus men of the Frozen Shore and the cannibal clans of the great ice rivers, hammering a hundred different daggers into one great spear, aimed at the heart of the Seven Kingdoms. He had no crown nor scepter, no robes of silk and velvet, but it was plain to Jon that Mance Rayder was a king in more than name."

Jon Snow, screaming in your face that Mance is Rhaegar

It's not George R. R. Martin's style.

   I think it's entirely consistent with his style.  There are clearly many conspiracies afoot that have come to fruition.  Also, many others (ahem) in the series have been thought dead that were not.  Just ask Bran, Rickon, Davos, the Clegane brothers, Catelyn, Beric Dondarrion, and the Elder Brother.  Oh, and Mance himself, of course.

   References to Rhaegar in the later books seem to have been growing, which is not what you would expect for a dead man from the previous war.  Look at how much Ser Barristan Selmy and Lord Jon Connington have been reminiscing about their fallen prince, for example.  George is trying to tell you something.  He's setting the stage for the big shocker that you totally should have seen coming but didn't.

   If you don't agree, however, consider this: the biggest secret of his magnum opus will necessarily be without precedent.

Jorah Mormont said, "Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died."

   How's Jorah's wisdom working out for him?

   I've pointed out before that "There are some very mislead and confused characters in the story whose words should not be trusted. Some of them understand things so thoroughly incorrectly that it would be wise to assume the opposites of their opinions."

   Consider Jorah's words other words to Daenerys: "Your brother was the last dragon, and he died on the Trident."  Dany already proved the first statement to be wrong.  What about the second?

There is no evidence that Mance is Rhaegar.

   This is blatantly, demonstrably false.  Anyone making this claim should be given a dictionary.  Evidence and proof are two very different things.  One can make a case that the theory has no proof, but one cannot reasonably claim that it has no evidence.  There is evidence to support Rhaegar's death as well as his life.  The job of the reader is to weigh the evidence and determine which conclusion is better explained by it.

This would totally ruin the story!

   Many would have said the same about killing off Ned.  I suggest you wait to see how George pulls it off with his masterful prose.

No.  Just, no!

   Yes.  Oh, yes!


* A note on George making false statements when pressed with difficult questions:

GRRM: "I wanted to reflect some of this... this realistic thing that the show people facing very difficult choices where it's not enough just to say, 'I will be good and wise and do the right thing.'  What is the right thing?  That's the question."
Our smug, moral superior nods sagely as he pontificates.
BBC: "But in fact the right thing often in the case of your characters in Game of Thrones is vicious and appalling and murderous." GRRM: "Ehhh..." His face says, "Whoa, you got me there.  I need to think up an excuse for why my entire moral framework has been invalidated, and quick!"
BBC: "Come."
GRRM: Babbling.  "... Joffrey, the teenage boy king - in an effort to show how strong he was and how you defied him at your peril - executes Eddard Stark at the end of the first book.  And this is a colossal mistake.  [The Night's Watch deal] would have been a much better solution."

   Of course, anyone who has read past the first book shouldn't be fooled.  We note that Ned's execution actually worked out fantastically for Joffrey's house.  It provoked the North into an attack that lost it all its power, and the Lannisters won the war.

Additions and corrections welcome in the comments!

Rhaegar the Dragonfly

   Many have wondered how the beloved Rhaegar Targaryen could be so different from his mad and cruel father, Aerys II Targaryen.  It is a fair question.  After all, Aerys's other son, Viserys, clearly did not fall so far from the tree.  Despite Robert's hateful claims, the rest of the seven kingdoms had the highest praise for Prince Rhaegar.  How can such a disconnect be reconciled?

   The answer is actually quite simple: Rhaegar is not the son of Aerys II.  The evidence for this is so, umm, stark that I am surprised I was unable to find any direct discussion of the matter.  Let us begin by taking a look at the timeline of births from Aerys II and Rhaella:

259 AC, birth of Rhaegar Targaryen during the Tragedy at Summerhall.
263 AC, a miscarriage.
264 AC, a miscarriage.
267 AC, stillbirth of Shaena Targaryen.
269 AC, birth of Daeron Targaryen.  Died half a year later.
270 AC, stillbirth of an unnamed child.
271 AC, a miscarriage.
272 AC, birth of Aegon Targaryen, two months premature.  Died in 273 AC.
274 AC, birth of Jaehaerys Targaryen.  Died later that year.
275 AC, King Aerys II blames his infidelity for these misfortunes and finally vows to be faithful to his wife.
276 AC, birth of Viserys Targaryen, small, robust, and quite healthy.
284 AC, birth of Daenerys Targaryen in exile on Dragonstone.

   Which of the above does not fit the pattern?  While one could certainly raise legitimate questions about Daenerys, Rhaegar's birth is undeniably out of place as the only healthy child before Aerys's vow of fidelity.  It's worth noting that Aerys II was born in 244 AC and Rhaella in 245 or 246.  They were quite young, albeit not impossibly young, to give birth to Rhaegar.

"...even as a child, your brother Viserys oft seemed to be his father's son, in ways that Rhaegar never did."

   Why did Aerys attempt to have children so many times after so many failures when Rhaegar was everything a king could desire in an heir?  If the answer is that he wanted many children, then why the long wait after Viserys?

   Furthermore, after Joanna Lannister gave birth to Jaime and Cersei, Aerys said, "I appear to have married the wrong woman."  This remark makes little sense if, by that time, each woman had given birth to one trueborn son.

   It also seems that Aerys deliberately married Rhaegar to someone who seemed unlikely to bear children: "Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar’s wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon’s birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward."

   I submit that Viserys is the first legitimate child of Aerys, so let us zero in on his birth for a moment.  Even though Viserys was healthy, Aerys II was extremely, insanely paranoid for his safety.  Nobody, not even Rhaella, was allowed to touch him.  He could not even be alone with his mother.  Aerys commanded that his food taster suckle the breasts of the wet nurse in case of poison.  The child's gifts were burned for fear of sorcery.  When Tywin held a tournament to celebrate the prince's birth, Viserys and Rhaella were commanded to remain in King's Landing.  This is the behavior of a mad king who has long been deprived of a direct heir.

   It is important to note that, in contrast, Rhaegar was permitted to compete in said tournament.  Aerys was not stupid enough to openly disown Rhaegar now that he had a legitimate son, but he evidently had no qualms about the young man engaging in such risky activities.

   A year after the birth of Viserys, Aerys believed Rhaegar conspired with Tywin to have him killed at the Defiance of Duskendale.  The fact that the king became suspicious of the prince immediately after the birth of Viserys is quite telling.  I'm reminded of how Prince Caspian, nephew of a king, had to flee once a son was born.

   This theory answers many questions, but asks an obvious one: who, then, were Rhaegar's parents?  It seems fitting to me that such a beloved character as Rhaegar would be more closely related to Aegon V, our favorite Targaryen from the Dunk and Egg stories, than originally claimed.  I believe the best explanation is that Rhaegar was not Egg's great-grandson, but his grandson through Duncan the Small, Prince of Dragonflies.  We are not told whether Duncan and Jenny had any children, as the record keepers seem to have lost interest in them after the prince gave up the throne and married for love.

   What we do know is that Jenny had a friendship with a prophetess, the woods witch who is probably the Ghost of High Heart who "gorged on grief at Summerhall."  We also know that Rhaegar had a passion for prophecy.  Egg and Duncan the Small died at Summerhall trying to fulfill a prophecy about the rebirth of dragons.  Rhaegar often returned to Summerhall in solitude to compose songs of sadness.  Rhaegar felt a stronger connection to those lost in the fire than the other survivors who actually knew them in life.

   "And yet Summerhall was the place the prince loved best. He would go there from time to time, with only his harp for company. Even the knights of the Kingsguard did not attend him there. He liked to sleep in the ruined hall, beneath the moon and stars, and whenever he came back he would bring a song. When you heard him play his high harp with the silver strings and sing of twilights and tears and the death of kings, you could not but feel that he was singing of himself and those he loved."

   I suspect that both Jenny and Rhaella were pregnant at the same time.  When tradegy struck Summerhall, I believe the baby almost "...died, but for the valor of the Lord Comman..."der.  (The History Of Archmaester Gyldayn)  Ser Duncan the Tall and Jenny of Oldstones either died or left in grief.  Rhaella, being consistent with her early pattern, either miscarried or had a stillbirth.  Aerys and Rhaella then took Jenny's child as their own.

   Why adopt Rhaegar?  There are many possible reasons.  Perhaps Jenny abandoned her child to their care.  After all, what we know of Jenny's Song suggests that she went mad if she lived.  Perhaps Aerys or Rhaella took pity on their infant cousin, who was family after all.  Perhaps Aerys thought it unfair that his own child was not the fulfillment of the prophecy and took the resulting baby for himself.  Perhaps Rhaella was heartbroken from her first stillbirth, or even lied to her husband at the start.  The imagination need not stretch at all.

   This conclusion also ties closely with events later in Rhaegar's life.  It shows a connection between the prince who crowned Lyanna Stark Queen of Love and Beauty and his father and grandfather who married for love at great cost to the realm.  It gives us another reason why Rhaegar was probably plotting to overthrow Aerys II around the time of the Tourney at Harrenhal.  Perhaps Rhaegar's historical research even gave him reason to suspect Aerys of foul play at Summerhall.

   Finally, this theory is more poetic for the readers who have a love of Dunk and Egg and who also believe that Rhaegar still has a heroic part to play in the Song of Ice and Fire.

   "My father was only nine-and-thirty. He had it in him to be a great king, the greatest since Aegon the Dragon. Why would the gods take him, and leave you? Begone with you, Ser Duncan. Begone."

   Proponents of the theory that the dragon flew in disguise to the wall would do well to recall Dunk's thoughts at the opening of the tale: "Why would they name it a dragonfly? he wondered. It looks nothing like a dragon."

Additions and corrections welcome in the comments!

Rhaegar's Song of Ice and Fire

Update: For a much more up-to-date analysis of the likelihood of Rhaegar's survival, check out 10 Reasons Rhaegar is not Dead.

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from all five books of A Song of Ice and Fire.  However, I have not yet read any of the sample chapters from Winds of Winter.

Dots Connected

   Throughout my entire reading of A Song of Ice and Fire, I felt that George R. R. Martin was trying to quietly drive home the fact that the Seven Kingdoms had their priorities out of line regarding the coming winter.  (I know, right?)  This problem seems to manifest itself in two primary ways.  First, and most obviously, all this fighting and destruction is counterproductive toward the storing of food and supplies that will be necessary to survive the coming winter.  Second, yet more importantly, there are many good men that should have gone to the Wall when they did not.  It is my opinion that this second point it vital in uncovering one of the greatest mysteries of the series.

   Think about it for a moment.  Ned is the most obvious example of a should-have-been watchman.  Then there's Jorah, Tyrion, Theon, and Asha, who all considered joining the Watch but did not act on those thoughts.  Others might have had the opportunity after being imprisoned or outlawed if fate had not intervened, such as Jaqen, Gendry, Jaime, or the Hound.  Can you imagine a wall populated with some or all of these?  But it is not to be, and at every turn these would-be heroes take other paths.  Jon is perhaps the only character of a certain heroic potential that joins the wall, and he laments that the wall's finest are now gone.  George seems to be impressing upon us the fact that the greatest threat to the Kingdoms - the Others - is being ignored just as much as the coming winter, and the realm will pay dearly for this.

   As the story progresses, another motif becomes apparent: Mance Rayder's son is important.  This may not even be intentional George's part.  Whatver the case, it seems a bit out of place to me.  There's no denying that Mance has had an important role to play in the story up until now, but I see no reason why his child should warrant so much excessive attention from the author.

   Finally, as I was somewhere in the middle of A Dance with Dragons, a third theme started to stick out like a sore thumb.  Several characters simply will not stop lamenting about the death of Rhaegar Targaryen.  When Connington and Barristan (not alone, but most prominent) kept reflecting on the young prince, I thought to myself, "Now there's another one that would have been an awesome asset against the Others.  If only Prince Rhaegar was at the Wall..."  And then it hit me.  He is.

   Mance Rayder is Prince Rhaegar.

   While you give that idea a chance to soak in, let me point out that I'm certainly not the first to think it.  I didn't finish Dance until about a month ago, after all, and when I did I hopped online to see if anyone else had concluded as much.  Some have, but it seems to have mostly been dismissed for what I consider to be unwarranted reasons.  I'll get to that later, but first let's look at the parts of this hypothesis that connect the most dots.

Direct Evidence

   First of all, Rayder and Rhaegar are similar in many ways.  The age seems to work.  They're both masterful musicians.  They both have extremely outstanding skill at arms.  Both have a love for lore and the smallfolk.  Rhaegar was a prince, and, as Mance, later became a king, albeit of a different realm.  The previous point also speaks to what Barristan has described as the prince's ability to excel at anything he set out to do - a former crow uniting the free folk is no simple task.  Furthermore, Prince Rhaegar even sounds like Mance Rayder.  (That last was actually my first "Aha!" moment that started this whole train of thought.)

   A few less obvious items: Mance's cloak is red and black - Rhaegar's colors.  Mance is fond of Bael (Abel) the Bard, whose actions were very similar to Rhaegar's with his own blue winter rose.  Assuming the truth of the strong possibility that Jon is Rhaegar's son, Snow's duel with Mance Rattleshirt was certainly a nod to Luke and Vader.  Alfie Allen, Theon in the TV series, has said, "I can tell you that [Jon's parentage] involves a bit of a Luke Skywalker situation."  One cannot deny that Mance has a certain affection for Jon.  And finally, the undue focus on the baby suddenly makes a LOT more sense.  Oh yeah, what was it that Gilly wanted to name him?  That's right.  Aemon.

Answers to Objections

   At this point you might be asking, "Okay, but what about ?"  Yes, while this idea answers many questions, it also raises some big ones.  Here are some of the strongest objections, and my thoughts on them:

   To begin with, it's obvious that Mance doesn't look like Rhaegar.  Mance is plain looking.  His hair is turned mostly gray from brown, and his eyes are brown.  Rhaegar was stunning, with silver hair and lilac eyes.  This problem is not insurmountable, however, as Mance has proven willing to disguise himself and impersonate others multiple times.  Such disguises include the musician at Robert's feast at Winterfell, Rattleshirt, and Abel the bard.  In addition, Arya's branch of the tale has shown us how looks can be very deceiving, by several different means, in this series.

   Another objection is that at one point, George was asked what happened to Rhaegar's body.  George replied, "Rhaegar was cremated, as is traditional for fallen Targaryens."  I have absolutely no problem with this, however.  If the Mance Rhaegar concept is true, what in the world would you expect George to say?  "What body?"  "Keep reading?"  "Good question, one day you will get an answer?"  "They cremated the body that was assumed to be Rhaegar's?"  Really, people?  How does it not occur to skeptics that such answers would have practically given away perhaps the biggest mystery in the entire series?  George said exactly what I would expect him to say if an impersonator was slain at the trident and the body believed to be Rhaegar's was cremated.

   If there was indeed an impersonator, it would likely have been a Kingsguard.  Probably, but not necessarily, Arthur Dayne, who was a very close friend of Rhaegar's.  I know this doesn't mix with Ned's dream, but it was a little weird and vague, and dreams are not necessarily memories.  Ned and even Benjen may know of Rhaegar; after all, Ned told his wife, "We have nothing to fear of Mance Rayder."  Regardless, it was someone who Rhaegar trusted, whose eyes were pecked out as his body lay in the water.  Another interesting point is that followers of R'hllor can use rubies to disguise identities, which is what Rhaegar's armor was adorned with.

   Perhaps Rhaegar did not expect Aerys to roast Rickard and incite rebellion so soon.  Perhaps Rhaegar welcomed the rebellion and actually wanted it to succeed.  There are a lot of questions about what really happened before, during, and after the rebellion, and the last book probably won't even answer them all.  Something happened between Rhaegar's last meeting with Jaime and the battle, whether he planned it that way or not, and Rhaegar eventually ended up at the Wall.

   What about the story of Mance being fostered at the Wall from childhood?  Nobody at the Wall today remembers as far back as Mance's childhood, so the story is only propogated by non-primary sources.  In addition, Mance served at the Shadow Tower, away from prying eyes.  Furthermore, some of the Night's Watch may have been helping to cover up the truth, including Benjen, Qhorin, Maester Aemon, or even, indirectly, Bloodraven.  It's a fair objection, but hardly conclusive.

   A good question is, "Why would Rhaegar attack the Wall?"  The answer to this is not clear, but I can think of several viable possibilities.  Perhaps he felt that the Night's Watch was so degenerated that it could no longer protect the realm from the impending doom.  Perhaps he felt that the lives of the massive numbers of free folk were more important than the skeleton crew manning the wall.  Perhaps he made every attempt to reconcile both, but his plans went awry.  (The only person in this series that always seems to have things go perfectly his way is Littlefinger.)  Yet the Wall is where the solution to the mystery is almost poetic.

Summary of Events

   Prince Rhaegar's realm had its priorities out of line.  Everyone was obsessed with petty power, and the prince wanted nothing to do with it.  He was reclusive, keeping to his books, until one day he discovered that a great threat will come to his people.  He put down the ancient scroll, walked straight to the master-at-arms, and said, "I will require a sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior."  After excelling beyond all expectations and winning great renown, he told one of his friends on the eve of battle, "When the battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."  But something went wrong, and he had to seek another way to ensure the protection of his people.

   Free from the burden of rule, the hidden prince was finally able to investigate this impending threat of the Others.  He first joined the Night's Watch, and soon became their greatest ranger.  In his rangings, he learned of the free folk, the wildlings beyond the Wall.  He recognized that they would bear the brunt of the wrath of the Others, and would be used by them to threaten his own people to the South.  Therefore, he abandoned the Watch and made the free people his people too.  Not only was it his intent to bring together the separate tribes of the wildlings, he planned to unite them with the Seven Kingdoms against their greatest threat and common foe.

   The road has had its bumps, to say the least; it is almost certain that everything did not go as he planned.  Yet one cannot deny that the Wall is now much stronger than it was, and in no small part due to the unintentional assistance of Rhaegar's son.  In the coming winter, the realm's greatest suffering will only be from hunger and power struggles, instead of an apocalypse of the walking dead.  His kingdom may never know it, but it will have its hidden and beloved prince, placing duty above all else, to thank for its salvation.

   Who needs that prissy little teenybopper in Mereen?  Westeros already has a hero, thank you very much.

Thanks to awoiaf.westeros.org for being a great resource.  I never bothered with it until after I finished Dance, but it was nice not having to re-read all the books to gather clues I may have missed.  Also, thanks to the brothers of the boar for letting me bounce ideas off them.

Galloway Precision's Stainless Guide Rod - Review

Time for a hardware upgrade!  No, I'm not talking about my computer this time.  This piece of equipment is more serious, but just as fun in a different way.

I didn't have a serious need to modify my Ruger SR40c.  However, my first thousand rounds through the handgun had mixed results.  There were two worrisome problems:

1) Failure to load - I had about six FTLs in my first 1,000 rounds.  However, five of them were during the first 500, after which I realized I had neglected to clean some carbon that had built up on the feed ramp.  After that, I had just one FTL in the remaining 500 rounds.  Two of those first five were from shooting left handed - probably limp wristing.

2) Failure to reset - My slide would fail to completely reset to battery.  This happened perhaps 40 times, and was the most annoying problem.  After firing, the slide would stick back just a bit, perhaps half a cm.  Tapping it on the back would set it all the way forward and firing could commence.  I think that much of this could be attributed to user error.  I had often forgotten to clean the slide rail, so it would get gunked up pretty badly. I was also putting too much oil on the rail after cleaning - so much that some would drip out the back of the slide.  Now that I have more experience with this gun and its operation, I know to keep that rail clean and to use only a VERY small amount of oil on it, if any.  None at all might even be fine.

It sounds like I'm making excuses.  Yes, some of this can be chalked up to my inexperience with cleaning, and perhaps the very cheap Aguila 180gr FMJ ammo had something to do with it.  However, I want to make sure that this gun can be completely reliable even under adverse conditions.

I decided to pull the trigger on a Galloway Precision stainless steel guide rod.  I selected an 18lb spring, believing that it might help prevent my sticky slide problems.  The stock spring on Ruger's guide rod is 16lbs.

Delivery was really fast.  I ordered it on a Friday and it arrived the following Monday.  Nice.

Installation was as simple as a routine disassembly for cleaning.  The new guide rod fit right in - not too tight or loose.  Racking the slide did not feel any different to me.  I didn't expect to notice a 2lb difference.

One of the best things about Galloway's guide rod is that it looks fantastic.  In my opinion, the front of the polymer Ruger guide rod made the gun look cheap.  This shiny stainless rod is a vast improvement in the eye candy department.  I think the stainless accent complements the stainless barrel with this black slide quite nicely.  See for yourself:

Ruger's guide rod is always to the left, Galloway's to the right.  Note that the retaining cap, secured with Loctite, can be unscrewed to swap springs.

Looks aside, it is most important that I answer the big question: how did it shoot?  The answer: perfectly; absolutely perfectly.

First, I took my upgraded SR40c to Armed Citizen Training's Defensive Pistol course.  Here, I fired 250 rounds of my latest bulk ammo purchase: Prvi Partizan 180gr TMJ.  Because the course included a lot of moving around during various drills, this was not a case of carefully firing with a perfect grip and ideal Weaver stance.  The results?  No failures at all whatsoever.  No slide stickiness.  No limp wristing when firing left handed.  Nothing.

Eight days later, I took the gun to a private range for some more testing.  I decided to not clean it at all before this second outing, just to see how well it would hold up.  In addition, three other shooters tried a few magazines, and all of them were fairly new to handguns.  200 rounds were fired without any problems.  That makes for a total of over 450 rounds without cleaning.

It was hard to say whether the recoil was softer.  Previously, my right hand would feel a little sore the next day if I fired over 100 rounds at an outing.  I did not experience this soreness at either of these recent outings with the new guide rod.  Maybe some day I'll take it to a range and swap out the guide rods between magazines to see if the difference can be noticed.

All things considered, I am happy with Galloway Precision's stainless steel guide rod with 18lb spring for my Ruger SR40c.  I'm not willing to claim that it was the magical fix for my gun's problems because there are too many factors at play: different ammo, poor cleaning practices, gun familiarity, or simply needing to be broken in.  However, I can say that this upgraded gun is completely reliable now, and I can trust it with the lives of my loved ones.  Thank you, Eric Galloway!

Galloway Precision makes other parts for the Ruger SR series and similar handguns.  Examples include an extended magazine release, a replacement part that deletes the loaded chamber indicator, a polished aluminum striker indicator and polished striker plunger to smooth out trigger pull, and different springs for the striker plunger and trigger to lighten trigger pull.  I may try one or more of these some day, especially if they make extended magazine floor plates or a stainless version of the extended mag release.

Skyrim: Beyond Ultra

I have what many would call a solid yet mediocre gaming PC.  Even so, I am running Skyrim at what I like to call Beyond Ultra settings.  Overall, it looks better than stock Ultra and it runs smoother too.  I'm posting about how I did it so friends with similar rigs can give it a shot.

Setup

CPU: Core 2 Duo E8400 @ 3.6 GHz
RAM: 4GB DDR3 1600
GPU: GTX 460 768MB @ 825MHz Core & 1050MHz VRAM (Driver: 290.53)
Resolution: 1920x1080

I use several mods, but none that affect graphics much.  Bethesda's official Skyrim High Resolution Texture Pack is installed.  The game version is 1.5.26.

Please note that I chose my settings carefully based on my hardware configuration.  For example, I have to avoid settings that use a lot of VRAM, but I can go a little more heavy on those that rely on GPU and CPU core processing power.  Someone with an Athlon II and HD 5770 1GB will be in the opposite situation.  Your mileage may vary.  Know your hardware.

Also, understand that I did not spend the time required to test everything completely.  I cannot tell you exactly what causes some of these differences, though I can make educated guesses.  Honestly, I'd rather spend the rest of my free time playing instead of investigating.  I'd be interested to hear about your own testing results, though.

With that out of the way, below are the differences in my SkyrimPrefs.ini file.  The value shown is my "Beyond Ultra" setting.  Parentheses contain the stock Ultra value.

fShadowDistance=2000.0000 (8000.0000)

fShadowDistance not only affects the distance at which shadows will be drawn, it also affects the detail of the shadows.  (Outside only.  The inside option has no effect on shadow detail.)  Lower values will result in less jagged shadow edges, but higher values will increase the number of shadows by drawing them at farther distances.  In other words, setting it to a ridiculously small value will give you an extremely smooth shadow, but the the only shadow you see will be your own.

iShadowMapResolution=2048 (4096)

iShadowMapResolution affects shadow detail only.  Higher values will result in less jagged shadow edges.  This value can actually go up to 8192 for very smooth shadows.  Changing this value will affect the framerate dramatically.

Those first two are basically the only downsides of using "Beyond Ultra."  Everything else is way better.

iMaxAnisotropy=0 (16)  0 here because instead it's 16x in Nvidia control panel.

Instead of allowing Skyrim to handle Anisotropic Filtering, I prefer to let Nvidia do it via the Control Panel.  I believe this is what is making some of my textures look more detailed than stock Ultra.

iMultiSample=0 (8)  0 here because I use SMAA instead.

Forget the built-in MSAA!  I'm using Subpixel Morphological Antialiasing.  It looks better in my opinion, and it's much easier on the GPU.  SMAA also uses up less video memory.  Previously, I used 4xMSAA and I'd eventually run out of video memory and get stuttering after extended play.  (8x was used for these tests, though.)  Now that I'm using SMAA, I haven't had that happen yet.

bTreesReceiveShadows=1 (0)
bDrawLandShadows=1 (0)

These add more shadows outside.  Fairly self explanatory

In my NVIDIA Control Panel I have the below settings enabled.  Everything else is basically standard.

Ambient Occlusion: Quality (Off)

This adds totally awesome shading to the game.  Ambient Occlusion, on at least some level, is a must.

Anisotropic Filtering: 16x (Off)  Off here because stock Ultra sets it to 16 in Skyrim's settings.

While the number is the same, Nvidia does it better than Bethesda, so the quality ends up being higher.  Not all graphical settings are created equal.

Finally, I use SMAA, which is installed by placing some files in the Skyrim folder.

Results

Let's take a look at the results.  Below are images compared using Ultra (left) and my custom Beyond Ultra (right).  By the way, if you notice a difference in the location of HUD elements in my pics, that's just the result of other custom INI tweaks that should have no effect on performance or image quality.

In this image, you'll notice several important differences.

First, Beyond Ultra actually results in slightly less jagged shadows outside even though the iShadowMapResolution is lower.  This is because fShadowDistance also affects shadow detail.  This benefit only works on exterior areas.

Second, Beyond Ultra has more and better shadows all around, most noticeable on NPC clothing and plants.  This is due to Ambient Occlusion.

Third, the ground textures have greater detail on Beyond Ultra.  I'm not sure, but I think this may have something to do with Nvidia's Anisotropic Filtering being better than Skyrim's.

Fourth, the plants look smoother on Beyond Ultra because SMAA affects transparent textures (usually leaves, branches, etc) while MSAA does not.  Nvidia's control panel does allow you enable a different transparency antialiasing, but at a greater performance hit.  You'll notice that the other edges in the picture have the same smoothness on both settings.

Fifth, what's with Ultra's weird halo effect on the outside of the guy's right arm and left elbow?  I'm not sure what caused it, but I'm guessing it has to do with antialiasing.  Another bonus with SMAA, perhaps?

Major, major differences indoors.

First, you'll notice that many of the textures on stone and wood are more detailed with Beyond Ultra.  Strangely, however, the logs on the fire are more detailed in Ultra than Beyond Ultra.  This is the only instance of this I have noticed.  I wonder if it has something to do with smoke triggering SMAA, which would blur anything behind the smoke.  Just a guess.

Second, Ambient Occlusion absolutely shines here.  Look at all those beautiful shadows in the corners and around furniture!

Third, some of the shadows have more jagged edges in Beyond Ultra.  This is due to iShadowMapResolution being lower.

Fourth, the antialiasing on some edges is a little better with Ultra.

Some new things to notice out on the road.

First, look at the shadows on the roof and other parts of the building.  They're nonexistent in Beyond Ultra because of fShadowDistance being so low.

Second, Ambient Occlusion makes most of the other shadows way better, especially on rocks.

Third, we notice that a few textures are once again more detailed with Beyond Ultra.  Look at the stone wall to the left.  Interestingly, this seems to consistently happen on objects that are closer to the player.  The wall really makes this apparent.  Again, my guess is that we have NVIDIA's Anisotropic Filtering to thank for this

Fourth, plants look way smoother with Beyond Ultra because SMAA affects transparent textures.

Fifth, some of the edges on the building actually look just a little smoother in Beyond Ultra.  However, that fence board way on the left has some weirdness going on.  That's an eyesore.

A few new things with this one.

First, take a look at some of the mountains way in the upper left.  A few of the textures are more detailed on Beyond Ultra.  Probably due to NVIDIA's Anisotropic Filtering.

Second, the trees look way better with shadows in Beyond Ultra.  This is mostly due to bTreesReceiveShadows.

Third, plants are, once again, smoother with SMAA.

Fourth, the shorter shadow distance with Beyond Ultra is painfully obvious all around, but close-up plant shadows are a little more detailed.

Fifth, look at the wings on the windmill in the distance.  Ultra does something weird with them, possibly due to Skyrim's MSAA.

Performance

Finally, below are the benchmark results.  Measurements were taken with FRAPS while standing on the highest step of Dragonsreach with the view centered on the Glidergreen.  It has been said that this view is good for benchmarking because it's fairly demanding.

Ultra: 24.529 (22/28 Min/Max)
Beyond: 32.362 (30/34 Min/Max)
Epic: 20.218 (19/22 Min/Max)

"Epic" uses all the benefits of "Beyond Ultra" with fShadowDistance=8000.0000 and iShadowMapResolution=4096.  It's the best image quality of both worlds, but with the worst performance of the three.

Again, I must point out that using SMAA instead of MSAA (4x) has removed hard drive thrashing that would occur after varying amounts of gameplay.  I can play for hours with a very smooth gaming experience.  I no longer have to restart the game every so often to clear memory.

FYI, Vertical Sync is forced off for all these, though I plan on using NVIDIA's new Adaptive Vsync when the latest drivers come out of beta.  For now, the tearing isn't noticeable enough to warrant the performance hit.  Triple buffering uses up more memory than my video card can reasonably tolderate right now.  I do know that my framerates could be higher with NVIDIA's massive improvements to the latest drivers, but I'll wait for the WHQL version.  For now, it's smooth enough.

There you have it.  Some give and take with shadows, but overall I think it's a nice improvement over Ultra settings.  And it comes with a performance boost!  If you want to do your own investigations, I'd love to hear about them.