Rhaegar's Song of Ice and Fire

Update: For a much more up-to-date analysis of the likelihood of Rhaegar's survival, check out 10 Reasons Rhaegar is not Dead.

Spoiler Alert: This piece may contain spoilers from all five books of A Song of Ice and Fire.  However, I have not yet read any of the sample chapters from Winds of Winter.

Dots Connected

   Throughout my entire reading of A Song of Ice and Fire, I felt that George R. R. Martin was trying to quietly drive home the fact that the Seven Kingdoms had their priorities out of line regarding the coming winter.  (I know, right?)  This problem seems to manifest itself in two primary ways.  First, and most obviously, all this fighting and destruction is counterproductive toward the storing of food and supplies that will be necessary to survive the coming winter.  Second, yet more importantly, there are many good men that should have gone to the Wall when they did not.  It is my opinion that this second point it vital in uncovering one of the greatest mysteries of the series.

   Think about it for a moment.  Ned is the most obvious example of a should-have-been watchman.  Then there's Jorah, Tyrion, Theon, and Asha, who all considered joining the Watch but did not act on those thoughts.  Others might have had the opportunity after being imprisoned or outlawed if fate had not intervened, such as Jaqen, Gendry, Jaime, or the Hound.  Can you imagine a wall populated with some or all of these?  But it is not to be, and at every turn these would-be heroes take other paths.  Jon is perhaps the only character of a certain heroic potential that joins the wall, and he laments that the wall's finest are now gone.  George seems to be impressing upon us the fact that the greatest threat to the Kingdoms - the Others - is being ignored just as much as the coming winter, and the realm will pay dearly for this.

   As the story progresses, another motif becomes apparent: Mance Rayder's son is important.  This may not even be intentional George's part.  Whatver the case, it seems a bit out of place to me.  There's no denying that Mance has had an important role to play in the story up until now, but I see no reason why his child should warrant so much excessive attention from the author.

   Finally, as I was somewhere in the middle of A Dance with Dragons, a third theme started to stick out like a sore thumb.  Several characters simply will not stop lamenting about the death of Rhaegar Targaryen.  When Connington and Barristan (not alone, but most prominent) kept reflecting on the young prince, I thought to myself, "Now there's another one that would have been an awesome asset against the Others.  If only Prince Rhaegar was at the Wall..."  And then it hit me.  He is.

   Mance Rayder is Prince Rhaegar.

   While you give that idea a chance to soak in, let me point out that I'm certainly not the first to think it.  I didn't finish Dance until about a month ago, after all, and when I did I hopped online to see if anyone else had concluded as much.  Some have, but it seems to have mostly been dismissed for what I consider to be unwarranted reasons.  I'll get to that later, but first let's look at the parts of this hypothesis that connect the most dots.

Direct Evidence

   First of all, Rayder and Rhaegar are similar in many ways.  The age seems to work.  They're both masterful musicians.  They both have extremely outstanding skill at arms.  Both have a love for lore and the smallfolk.  Rhaegar was a prince, and, as Mance, later became a king, albeit of a different realm.  The previous point also speaks to what Barristan has described as the prince's ability to excel at anything he set out to do - a former crow uniting the free folk is no simple task.  Furthermore, Prince Rhaegar even sounds like Mance Rayder.  (That last was actually my first "Aha!" moment that started this whole train of thought.)

   A few less obvious items: Mance's cloak is red and black - Rhaegar's colors.  Mance is fond of Bael (Abel) the Bard, whose actions were very similar to Rhaegar's with his own blue winter rose.  Assuming the truth of the strong possibility that Jon is Rhaegar's son, Snow's duel with Mance Rattleshirt was certainly a nod to Luke and Vader.  Alfie Allen, Theon in the TV series, has said, "I can tell you that [Jon's parentage] involves a bit of a Luke Skywalker situation."  One cannot deny that Mance has a certain affection for Jon.  And finally, the undue focus on the baby suddenly makes a LOT more sense.  Oh yeah, what was it that Gilly wanted to name him?  That's right.  Aemon.

Answers to Objections

   At this point you might be asking, "Okay, but what about ?"  Yes, while this idea answers many questions, it also raises some big ones.  Here are some of the strongest objections, and my thoughts on them:

   To begin with, it's obvious that Mance doesn't look like Rhaegar.  Mance is plain looking.  His hair is turned mostly gray from brown, and his eyes are brown.  Rhaegar was stunning, with silver hair and lilac eyes.  This problem is not insurmountable, however, as Mance has proven willing to disguise himself and impersonate others multiple times.  Such disguises include the musician at Robert's feast at Winterfell, Rattleshirt, and Abel the bard.  In addition, Arya's branch of the tale has shown us how looks can be very deceiving, by several different means, in this series.

   Another objection is that at one point, George was asked what happened to Rhaegar's body.  George replied, "Rhaegar was cremated, as is traditional for fallen Targaryens."  I have absolutely no problem with this, however.  If the Mance Rhaegar concept is true, what in the world would you expect George to say?  "What body?"  "Keep reading?"  "Good question, one day you will get an answer?"  "They cremated the body that was assumed to be Rhaegar's?"  Really, people?  How does it not occur to skeptics that such answers would have practically given away perhaps the biggest mystery in the entire series?  George said exactly what I would expect him to say if an impersonator was slain at the trident and the body believed to be Rhaegar's was cremated.

   If there was indeed an impersonator, it would likely have been a Kingsguard.  Probably, but not necessarily, Arthur Dayne, who was a very close friend of Rhaegar's.  I know this doesn't mix with Ned's dream, but it was a little weird and vague, and dreams are not necessarily memories.  Ned and even Benjen may know of Rhaegar; after all, Ned told his wife, "We have nothing to fear of Mance Rayder."  Regardless, it was someone who Rhaegar trusted, whose eyes were pecked out as his body lay in the water.  Another interesting point is that followers of R'hllor can use rubies to disguise identities, which is what Rhaegar's armor was adorned with.

   Perhaps Rhaegar did not expect Aerys to roast Rickard and incite rebellion so soon.  Perhaps Rhaegar welcomed the rebellion and actually wanted it to succeed.  There are a lot of questions about what really happened before, during, and after the rebellion, and the last book probably won't even answer them all.  Something happened between Rhaegar's last meeting with Jaime and the battle, whether he planned it that way or not, and Rhaegar eventually ended up at the Wall.

   What about the story of Mance being fostered at the Wall from childhood?  Nobody at the Wall today remembers as far back as Mance's childhood, so the story is only propogated by non-primary sources.  In addition, Mance served at the Shadow Tower, away from prying eyes.  Furthermore, some of the Night's Watch may have been helping to cover up the truth, including Benjen, Qhorin, Maester Aemon, or even, indirectly, Bloodraven.  It's a fair objection, but hardly conclusive.

   A good question is, "Why would Rhaegar attack the Wall?"  The answer to this is not clear, but I can think of several viable possibilities.  Perhaps he felt that the Night's Watch was so degenerated that it could no longer protect the realm from the impending doom.  Perhaps he felt that the lives of the massive numbers of free folk were more important than the skeleton crew manning the wall.  Perhaps he made every attempt to reconcile both, but his plans went awry.  (The only person in this series that always seems to have things go perfectly his way is Littlefinger.)  Yet the Wall is where the solution to the mystery is almost poetic.

Summary of Events

   Prince Rhaegar's realm had its priorities out of line.  Everyone was obsessed with petty power, and the prince wanted nothing to do with it.  He was reclusive, keeping to his books, until one day he discovered that a great threat will come to his people.  He put down the ancient scroll, walked straight to the master-at-arms, and said, "I will require a sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior."  After excelling beyond all expectations and winning great renown, he told one of his friends on the eve of battle, "When the battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."  But something went wrong, and he had to seek another way to ensure the protection of his people.

   Free from the burden of rule, the hidden prince was finally able to investigate this impending threat of the Others.  He first joined the Night's Watch, and soon became their greatest ranger.  In his rangings, he learned of the free folk, the wildlings beyond the Wall.  He recognized that they would bear the brunt of the wrath of the Others, and would be used by them to threaten his own people to the South.  Therefore, he abandoned the Watch and made the free people his people too.  Not only was it his intent to bring together the separate tribes of the wildlings, he planned to unite them with the Seven Kingdoms against their greatest threat and common foe.

   The road has had its bumps, to say the least; it is almost certain that everything did not go as he planned.  Yet one cannot deny that the Wall is now much stronger than it was, and in no small part due to the unintentional assistance of Rhaegar's son.  In the coming winter, the realm's greatest suffering will only be from hunger and power struggles, instead of an apocalypse of the walking dead.  His kingdom may never know it, but it will have its hidden and beloved prince, placing duty above all else, to thank for its salvation.

   Who needs that prissy little teenybopper in Mereen?  Westeros already has a hero, thank you very much.

Thanks to awoiaf.westeros.org for being a great resource.  I never bothered with it until after I finished Dance, but it was nice not having to re-read all the books to gather clues I may have missed.  Also, thanks to the brothers of the boar for letting me bounce ideas off them.

Galloway Precision's Stainless Guide Rod - Review

Time for a hardware upgrade!  No, I'm not talking about my computer this time.  This piece of equipment is more serious, but just as fun in a different way.

I didn't have a serious need to modify my Ruger SR40c.  However, my first thousand rounds through the handgun had mixed results.  There were two worrisome problems:

1) Failure to load - I had about six FTLs in my first 1,000 rounds.  However, five of them were during the first 500, after which I realized I had neglected to clean some carbon that had built up on the feed ramp.  After that, I had just one FTL in the remaining 500 rounds.  Two of those first five were from shooting left handed - probably limp wristing.

2) Failure to reset - My slide would fail to completely reset to battery.  This happened perhaps 40 times, and was the most annoying problem.  After firing, the slide would stick back just a bit, perhaps half a cm.  Tapping it on the back would set it all the way forward and firing could commence.  I think that much of this could be attributed to user error.  I had often forgotten to clean the slide rail, so it would get gunked up pretty badly. I was also putting too much oil on the rail after cleaning - so much that some would drip out the back of the slide.  Now that I have more experience with this gun and its operation, I know to keep that rail clean and to use only a VERY small amount of oil on it, if any.  None at all might even be fine.

It sounds like I'm making excuses.  Yes, some of this can be chalked up to my inexperience with cleaning, and perhaps the very cheap Aguila 180gr FMJ ammo had something to do with it.  However, I want to make sure that this gun can be completely reliable even under adverse conditions.

I decided to pull the trigger on a Galloway Precision stainless steel guide rod.  I selected an 18lb spring, believing that it might help prevent my sticky slide problems.  The stock spring on Ruger's guide rod is 16lbs.

Delivery was really fast.  I ordered it on a Friday and it arrived the following Monday.  Nice.

Installation was as simple as a routine disassembly for cleaning.  The new guide rod fit right in - not too tight or loose.  Racking the slide did not feel any different to me.  I didn't expect to notice a 2lb difference.

One of the best things about Galloway's guide rod is that it looks fantastic.  In my opinion, the front of the polymer Ruger guide rod made the gun look cheap.  This shiny stainless rod is a vast improvement in the eye candy department.  I think the stainless accent complements the stainless barrel with this black slide quite nicely.  See for yourself:

Ruger's guide rod is always to the left, Galloway's to the right.  Note that the retaining cap, secured with Loctite, can be unscrewed to swap springs.

Looks aside, it is most important that I answer the big question: how did it shoot?  The answer: perfectly; absolutely perfectly.

First, I took my upgraded SR40c to Armed Citizen Training's Defensive Pistol course.  Here, I fired 250 rounds of my latest bulk ammo purchase: Prvi Partizan 180gr TMJ.  Because the course included a lot of moving around during various drills, this was not a case of carefully firing with a perfect grip and ideal Weaver stance.  The results?  No failures at all whatsoever.  No slide stickiness.  No limp wristing when firing left handed.  Nothing.

Eight days later, I took the gun to a private range for some more testing.  I decided to not clean it at all before this second outing, just to see how well it would hold up.  In addition, three other shooters tried a few magazines, and all of them were fairly new to handguns.  200 rounds were fired without any problems.  That makes for a total of over 450 rounds without cleaning.

It was hard to say whether the recoil was softer.  Previously, my right hand would feel a little sore the next day if I fired over 100 rounds at an outing.  I did not experience this soreness at either of these recent outings with the new guide rod.  Maybe some day I'll take it to a range and swap out the guide rods between magazines to see if the difference can be noticed.

All things considered, I am happy with Galloway Precision's stainless steel guide rod with 18lb spring for my Ruger SR40c.  I'm not willing to claim that it was the magical fix for my gun's problems because there are too many factors at play: different ammo, poor cleaning practices, gun familiarity, or simply needing to be broken in.  However, I can say that this upgraded gun is completely reliable now, and I can trust it with the lives of my loved ones.  Thank you, Eric Galloway!

Galloway Precision makes other parts for the Ruger SR series and similar handguns.  Examples include an extended magazine release, a replacement part that deletes the loaded chamber indicator, a polished aluminum striker indicator and polished striker plunger to smooth out trigger pull, and different springs for the striker plunger and trigger to lighten trigger pull.  I may try one or more of these some day, especially if they make extended magazine floor plates or a stainless version of the extended mag release.

Skyrim: Beyond Ultra

I have what many would call a solid yet mediocre gaming PC.  Even so, I am running Skyrim at what I like to call Beyond Ultra settings.  Overall, it looks better than stock Ultra and it runs smoother too.  I'm posting about how I did it so friends with similar rigs can give it a shot.

Setup

CPU: Core 2 Duo E8400 @ 3.6 GHz
RAM: 4GB DDR3 1600
GPU: GTX 460 768MB @ 825MHz Core & 1050MHz VRAM (Driver: 290.53)
Resolution: 1920x1080

I use several mods, but none that affect graphics much.  Bethesda's official Skyrim High Resolution Texture Pack is installed.  The game version is 1.5.26.

Please note that I chose my settings carefully based on my hardware configuration.  For example, I have to avoid settings that use a lot of VRAM, but I can go a little more heavy on those that rely on GPU and CPU core processing power.  Someone with an Athlon II and HD 5770 1GB will be in the opposite situation.  Your mileage may vary.  Know your hardware.

Also, understand that I did not spend the time required to test everything completely.  I cannot tell you exactly what causes some of these differences, though I can make educated guesses.  Honestly, I'd rather spend the rest of my free time playing instead of investigating.  I'd be interested to hear about your own testing results, though.

With that out of the way, below are the differences in my SkyrimPrefs.ini file.  The value shown is my "Beyond Ultra" setting.  Parentheses contain the stock Ultra value.

fShadowDistance=2000.0000 (8000.0000)

fShadowDistance not only affects the distance at which shadows will be drawn, it also affects the detail of the shadows.  (Outside only.  The inside option has no effect on shadow detail.)  Lower values will result in less jagged shadow edges, but higher values will increase the number of shadows by drawing them at farther distances.  In other words, setting it to a ridiculously small value will give you an extremely smooth shadow, but the the only shadow you see will be your own.

iShadowMapResolution=2048 (4096)

iShadowMapResolution affects shadow detail only.  Higher values will result in less jagged shadow edges.  This value can actually go up to 8192 for very smooth shadows.  Changing this value will affect the framerate dramatically.

Those first two are basically the only downsides of using "Beyond Ultra."  Everything else is way better.

iMaxAnisotropy=0 (16)  0 here because instead it's 16x in Nvidia control panel.

Instead of allowing Skyrim to handle Anisotropic Filtering, I prefer to let Nvidia do it via the Control Panel.  I believe this is what is making some of my textures look more detailed than stock Ultra.

iMultiSample=0 (8)  0 here because I use SMAA instead.

Forget the built-in MSAA!  I'm using Subpixel Morphological Antialiasing.  It looks better in my opinion, and it's much easier on the GPU.  SMAA also uses up less video memory.  Previously, I used 4xMSAA and I'd eventually run out of video memory and get stuttering after extended play.  (8x was used for these tests, though.)  Now that I'm using SMAA, I haven't had that happen yet.

bTreesReceiveShadows=1 (0)
bDrawLandShadows=1 (0)

These add more shadows outside.  Fairly self explanatory

In my NVIDIA Control Panel I have the below settings enabled.  Everything else is basically standard.

Ambient Occlusion: Quality (Off)

This adds totally awesome shading to the game.  Ambient Occlusion, on at least some level, is a must.

Anisotropic Filtering: 16x (Off)  Off here because stock Ultra sets it to 16 in Skyrim's settings.

While the number is the same, Nvidia does it better than Bethesda, so the quality ends up being higher.  Not all graphical settings are created equal.

Finally, I use SMAA, which is installed by placing some files in the Skyrim folder.

Results

Let's take a look at the results.  Below are images compared using Ultra (left) and my custom Beyond Ultra (right).  By the way, if you notice a difference in the location of HUD elements in my pics, that's just the result of other custom INI tweaks that should have no effect on performance or image quality.

In this image, you'll notice several important differences.

First, Beyond Ultra actually results in slightly less jagged shadows outside even though the iShadowMapResolution is lower.  This is because fShadowDistance also affects shadow detail.  This benefit only works on exterior areas.

Second, Beyond Ultra has more and better shadows all around, most noticeable on NPC clothing and plants.  This is due to Ambient Occlusion.

Third, the ground textures have greater detail on Beyond Ultra.  I'm not sure, but I think this may have something to do with Nvidia's Anisotropic Filtering being better than Skyrim's.

Fourth, the plants look smoother on Beyond Ultra because SMAA affects transparent textures (usually leaves, branches, etc) while MSAA does not.  Nvidia's control panel does allow you enable a different transparency antialiasing, but at a greater performance hit.  You'll notice that the other edges in the picture have the same smoothness on both settings.

Fifth, what's with Ultra's weird halo effect on the outside of the guy's right arm and left elbow?  I'm not sure what caused it, but I'm guessing it has to do with antialiasing.  Another bonus with SMAA, perhaps?

Major, major differences indoors.

First, you'll notice that many of the textures on stone and wood are more detailed with Beyond Ultra.  Strangely, however, the logs on the fire are more detailed in Ultra than Beyond Ultra.  This is the only instance of this I have noticed.  I wonder if it has something to do with smoke triggering SMAA, which would blur anything behind the smoke.  Just a guess.

Second, Ambient Occlusion absolutely shines here.  Look at all those beautiful shadows in the corners and around furniture!

Third, some of the shadows have more jagged edges in Beyond Ultra.  This is due to iShadowMapResolution being lower.

Fourth, the antialiasing on some edges is a little better with Ultra.

Some new things to notice out on the road.

First, look at the shadows on the roof and other parts of the building.  They're nonexistent in Beyond Ultra because of fShadowDistance being so low.

Second, Ambient Occlusion makes most of the other shadows way better, especially on rocks.

Third, we notice that a few textures are once again more detailed with Beyond Ultra.  Look at the stone wall to the left.  Interestingly, this seems to consistently happen on objects that are closer to the player.  The wall really makes this apparent.  Again, my guess is that we have NVIDIA's Anisotropic Filtering to thank for this

Fourth, plants look way smoother with Beyond Ultra because SMAA affects transparent textures.

Fifth, some of the edges on the building actually look just a little smoother in Beyond Ultra.  However, that fence board way on the left has some weirdness going on.  That's an eyesore.

A few new things with this one.

First, take a look at some of the mountains way in the upper left.  A few of the textures are more detailed on Beyond Ultra.  Probably due to NVIDIA's Anisotropic Filtering.

Second, the trees look way better with shadows in Beyond Ultra.  This is mostly due to bTreesReceiveShadows.

Third, plants are, once again, smoother with SMAA.

Fourth, the shorter shadow distance with Beyond Ultra is painfully obvious all around, but close-up plant shadows are a little more detailed.

Fifth, look at the wings on the windmill in the distance.  Ultra does something weird with them, possibly due to Skyrim's MSAA.

Performance

Finally, below are the benchmark results.  Measurements were taken with FRAPS while standing on the highest step of Dragonsreach with the view centered on the Glidergreen.  It has been said that this view is good for benchmarking because it's fairly demanding.

Ultra: 24.529 (22/28 Min/Max)
Beyond: 32.362 (30/34 Min/Max)
Epic: 20.218 (19/22 Min/Max)

"Epic" uses all the benefits of "Beyond Ultra" with fShadowDistance=8000.0000 and iShadowMapResolution=4096.  It's the best image quality of both worlds, but with the worst performance of the three.

Again, I must point out that using SMAA instead of MSAA (4x) has removed hard drive thrashing that would occur after varying amounts of gameplay.  I can play for hours with a very smooth gaming experience.  I no longer have to restart the game every so often to clear memory.

FYI, Vertical Sync is forced off for all these, though I plan on using NVIDIA's new Adaptive Vsync when the latest drivers come out of beta.  For now, the tearing isn't noticeable enough to warrant the performance hit.  Triple buffering uses up more memory than my video card can reasonably tolderate right now.  I do know that my framerates could be higher with NVIDIA's massive improvements to the latest drivers, but I'll wait for the WHQL version.  For now, it's smooth enough.

There you have it.  Some give and take with shadows, but overall I think it's a nice improvement over Ultra settings.  And it comes with a performance boost!  If you want to do your own investigations, I'd love to hear about them.